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Last week, Tesla (TSLA) took another step toward turning science fiction into reality with the launch of its purpose-built Cybercab in Austin. No steering wheel. No pedals. And eventually, no human being required to operate it.
That would normally be enough futuristic transportation technology for one week. But this is The First Move after all, so let’s get ahead.
When do the cars start flying?
I’m only half joking. Elon Musk has teased the idea for years, and last month reports emerged that Tesla has been developing something far stranger than another electric vehicle.
The company has reportedly built a two-seat prototype of its next-generation Roadster that uses cold-gas thrusters developed with engineers from SpaceX.
Will we all be flying our Teslas to work in a few years? Probably not. But that’s not really the story.
While Musk’s flying Roadster makes for a great headline, a much more practical version of the flying-car revolution is already preparing for takeoff.
They’re called electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft, or eVTOLs.
Think of an eVTOL as the offspring of an electric airplane and a helicopter that looks like a large drone. It can take off and land vertically, eliminating the need for a traditional runway. Once airborne, it transitions into forward flight and carries passengers across congested metropolitan areas far faster than a car.
And unlike Musk’s rocket-powered Roadster experiment, these aircraft aren’t theoretical. They’re flying today.
Imagine leaving Manhattan and reaching JFK Airport without spending an hour sitting in traffic. Instead, you walk to a nearby vertiport, climb into an electric aircraft, take off vertically, and fly directly to the airport. Or imagine downtown Los Angeles to LAX, Miami to Miami Beach, or Dallas to Fort Worth.
The transportation grid suddenly moves from two dimensions into three.
This is also where the story connects to one of my favorite investment themes: convergence.
The Cybercab and an eVTOL may look completely different. But underneath the surface, many of the technologies pushing them forward are remarkably similar.
Electric propulsion is improving. Batteries are improving. Sensors are becoming cheaper. Computer vision is becoming more capable. And AI is advancing at an extraordinary pace.
Today, most commercial eVTOL concepts are designed to have pilots. That’s necessary for certification and makes sense as the industry gets started. But that’s not where this ultimately ends.
Think about what Tesla is attempting with Cybercab. The vehicle uses cameras, computing power, neural networks, and AI to understand its surroundings and make thousands of decisions as it travels through a city.
Now take that concept and add another dimension.
An autonomous eVTOL would essentially be a flying AI robot carrying passengers.
We’re not there yet, and regulators will understandably move cautiously when human lives are traveling hundreds or thousands of feet above the ground. But the technological direction is becoming difficult to ignore.
One of the biggest mistakes investors make is waiting until a new technology feels normal before taking it seriously. By then, much of the opportunity may already be reflected in stock prices.
That’s why what’s happening in the eVTOL industry today has my attention.
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has established an eVTOL Integration Pilot Program designed to accelerate real-world testing of these aircraft in U.S. airspace. Earlier this year, eight proposals were selected. The FAA has also announced successful eVTOL demonstrations, including medical transport testing.
In other words, the federal government isn’t debating whether eVTOLs should exist. It’s figuring out how to integrate them into American airspace.
Consider Joby Aviation (JOBY). Its aircraft is designed to carry a pilot and four passengers, and the company is working through the final stages of FAA certification.
Joby also plans to fly routes around the Dallas-Fort Worth area as part of the federal eVTOL program, helping establish the routes and procedures necessary for future commercial operations.
Its rival Archer Aviation (ACHR) is moving quickly as well. Archer’s Midnight aircraft continues through the certification process, while the company has positioned itself for future air taxi networks in major cities and international markets, including the United Arab Emirates.
This is an important transition. We’re moving beyond asking whether these aircraft can fly and beginning to ask how companies can turn them into transportation businesses.
There’s still plenty that can go wrong. Aircraft certification is difficult. Building thousands of aircraft will require enormous amounts of capital. Battery technology must continue improving. Infrastructure must be constructed. And convincing millions of people to climb into small electric aircraft over major cities won’t happen overnight.
JOBY and ACHR remain speculative companies even though they’re valued at $6.5 and $4.5 billion, respectively. And that’s precisely why I’m watching them.
The McCall Innovation Curve isn’t about waiting until everyone agrees that a technology works. It’s about recognizing when something begins moving from an interesting experiment toward a viable business.
Electric vehicles once seemed crazy. Then autonomous vehicles seemed crazy. Now Tesla is putting vehicles designed without steering wheels or pedals onto the road.
And next up could be the skies.
That future is much closer than most people realize.
And when it arrives, AI will almost certainly be sitting in the cockpit.
P.S. The flying Roadster makes for a fun headline, but it’s more of a distraction than a trade.
The real pattern is the one already playing out with JOBY and ACHR: Musk pushes into a market, proves it’s real, and the rest of the industry scrambles to catch up before Wall Street prices it in.
That’s the exact setup I break down in my Musk Stampede presentation: which market he’s targeting next, and the companies best positioned as the money follows him in.
Take a few minutes and check it out. The future is coming fast.