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Hope you had a great Labor Day Weekend!
The team has four ideas to watch this week, and a theme runs through them, whether they planned it or not.
And that theme is resurrection.
Here we go:
Shares that were worth over $400 in 2021 spent 2025 in the low twenties, written off as a one-product company with no second act.
Then on August 19th it closed up 176.97%. Its biggest single day in history, on volume 1,819% above average. $45 billion of market value showed up in one session, and 24% of it left the next morning again.
The news behind it was bigger than the move suggests.
Moderna (MRNA) and Merck (MRK) reported that intismeran, combined with Keytruda, hit both its primary and secondary endpoints in a Phase 3 melanoma trial across 1,137 patients. That’s the first positive late-stage result for an mRNA cancer therapy in history.
Nate’s been watching the consolidation since, and he’s got a clean TPS setup on the 195-minute chart with squeezes stacked across several timeframes at once.
He’s in the September 18th $150 calls and likes going out to October or later. Target is $200 and up, which lines up with the 1.618 extension at $206.35. The stop is just under $110.
The detailed trial data hasn’t been released yet, it’s coming at a medical meeting, and at least one analyst has pointed out that melanoma is unusually well suited to this kind of vaccine. The read-across to other cancers isn’t automatic.
However, Nate is looking at this as a trade not as an investment.
CJ’s watching what he calls the Nuclear AI stocks, and the speculative crowd has started treating them as a deal.
The VanEck Uranium and Nuclear ETF (NLR) shifted its 50-day moving average into a positive trend last week. Last time that happened was February, and a fast 14% rally followed.
NuScale (SMR) is leading at the single-name level. SMR moved 13% and is trying to post its first close above $10 since July 1st, which matters because round numbers pull in attention that other prices don’t.
His caution on it is worth repeating. Volume in SMR is running below average for the time, so the move probably sees some retracement over the next few sessions.
The last time SMR moved double digits was late July, off the White House announcement on American nuclear innovation, and that one came off support at $8, which is another round number.
Karim’s watching GLD against the rate picture, and his frame here hasn’t changed.
The dollar buys less every year, central banks have been buying gold at a record pace, and cash is a position instead of a place to hide.
What’s different this week is the rate path, because if the market keeps pricing a hike, then the textbook says gold suffers.
Bryan’s writing Friday about the twenty-fifth anniversary of September 11th, and he’s using it as a study in what markets do after they get destroyed.
The NYSE shut for four trading days after the attacks, its longest closure since the Great Depression. When it reopened, the Dow fell 684 points (7.13%) in a single session, and by that Friday the index was down 14.2% for the week, its worst since 1933.
The S&P 500 didn’t do much better, off 11.6% for the week, its worst since Black Monday in 1987. And yet by December 11th, the S&P was already trading 3.8% above where it sat before the attacks.
Talk about resilience…
This ties into a unique strategy he’ll share more about in the coming days.
Make sure to check your inbox for the upcoming details.
