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Forget ghosts and goblins. You know what’s really scary for frequent flyers like me? Plane tickets cost 5.4% more than they did a year ago.
That’s from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, and fuel is a big reason. Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil, averaged $114 a barrel in September, according to the Energy Information Administration.
High fuel eats into airline profits, so carriers hold off on big purchases like new planes. We’re in that spot right now.
I expect fuel costs to come down in 2027, and that will be a catalyst for Boeing (BA). On Tuesday, Wall Street handed you a lower price on it.
Boeing reported earnings, and the stock dropped nearly 10%, one of its worst days since the pandemic. The company said it won’t hit its goal of 500 deliveries this year and pushed back plans to build 47 737 jets a month until early 2027.
None of that touched demand. Boeing’s backlog, the planes customers have ordered but haven’t received yet, hit a record $745 billion in the same report, more than 6,300 commercial airplanes.
Boeing delivered 475 planes in the first nine months of this year. At that pace, it has about 10 years of orders to fill.
The EIA expects wholesale jet fuel to fall from $3.88 a gallon this quarter to $2.70 by the end of 2027. For an airline, that’s a 30% cut in one of its biggest bills.
When airlines save on fuel, they have cash to buy new planes, and they’re less likely to delay deliveries they’ve already ordered. Boeing collects most of its money when it hands over a plane, so on-time deliveries mean more cash coming in.
The planes they’re waiting on also burn less fuel. The 737 MAX uses about 20% less than the 737 it replaces, and the 787 Dreamliner uses 20% to 25% less than the planes it replaces, according to Boeing.
Boeing’s missed production targets before, and Tuesday was another miss. If it misses again in early 2027, the stock won’t get credit for all those orders.
Fuel is the other risk. The EIA warns the conflict in the Middle East will keep oil prices volatile, and if fuel stays high into next year, the catalyst gets pushed back.
If you’ve been waiting for a better price on Boeing, Tuesday’s selloff gave you one. Buy on this weakness, use a limit price so you control what you pay, and give it time for fuel to come down in 2027.
Fuel, oil, and airlines will move a lot between now and then, and I’m tracking it all in The War Room.
Halloween is the booking deadline for holiday flights. Hopper says to book Thanksgiving and Christmas travel before October 31, because fares climb from there. And they’re already high. This year’s average Thanksgiving round trip is $402, up 31% and the highest in 10 years. Talk about scary! Happy Halloween!
