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The Fed is expected to raise rates today for the first time since 2023.
Three years since they last went up…
But based on the lack of guidance and transparency of this new Fed regime, nothing is guaranteed.
This could set up quite a market reaction, and it all rests on the shoulders of Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh.
I’ll be anxiously awaiting the decision at 2pm this afternoon, but it seems like the writing is on the wall already.
The market has about a 93% chance of a quarter point priced in.
But almost nobody is thinking about what comes next.
If the reaction goes badly and this market sells off… that’s not a problem for me.
A falling market hands me MORE opportunities. Not fewer.
Why?
Let me take you back to where I learned this.
My first job out of college was the CBOE trading floor.
In 1999, I stood in the Apple pit, filling orders by hand for the big funds.
Then the machines showed up.
One by one, the guys around me got replaced. By the time I walked off that floor, most of what used to be human hands was code running on a server somewhere.
And while it seemed like doom on my way out the door…
That turned out to be the best thing that ever happened to traders like you and me.
You see, a machine runs on code. Under the same conditions, it makes the same decision every single time, because there’s no feelings involved and nothing to talk it out of anything.
So, when a Fed announcement puts this market on the floor…
The machines don’t panic. They execute.
They lean on the same names, in the same way, for as long as the conditions hold. And that leaves a footprint I can watch build in real time.
This next bit took me three years to work out.
Once the machines have leaned on a stock for several sessions running, the pressure can’t hold forever.
That fund selling into the name has an obligation it cannot get out of. It keeps going… or it stops.
And when it stops, the weight that was holding that stock down is simply gone.
That’s when the thing snaps back.
I call those Flash Rallies.
Over the last 10 years, I’ve counted 7,377 of those sequences completing across the most heavily traded stocks in the market. That’s roughly two a week.
And a day like today? A policy decision dropping on a market already sitting on edge?
That produces a whole lot more than two.
The Fed decision lands at exactly the same moment I go live… which was not an accident.
I’ll have the scanner up on screen while it happens. You’ll see the setups building in real time.
Be live with me when the decision hits, see how the machines react, and where the opportunities lie.
It’s free.
