On August 6, 911.5 million shares of SpaceX (SPCX) get unlocked.
The biggest lock-up expiration there has ever been. About $116 billion in stock, handed back to insiders who have been sitting on their hands since June.
Two days before that, August 4, the company reports earnings for the first time. That’s tomorrow, folks.
I can’t remember the last time I was this excited about a setup.
Only about 4% of SpaceX is trading right now. After the 6th, that float roughly triples overnight, in a stock already down over 40% from its high, two days after the market gets its first real look at the books.
I can’t imagine analysts know how to price this stock given how unique the business truly is. And when there’s so much uncertainty, you can expect a ton of volatility.
And it won’t be just in SpaceX either, and this is the part I want you to understand, because it is the whole reason I am doing this.
What I look for is heavy short interest sitting atop a catalyst.
Short interest is the number of shares people have borrowed and sold, betting the price falls. Every one of those shares has to get bought back at some point. If good news lands first, they’re all buying at the same time, and that buying stacks on top of everybody else’s buying.
It’s why these names don’t move 5%. They move 20-50%.
Now look at where the shorts are sitting in this group. Virgin Galactic (SPCE) has 34% of its float sold short, AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is around 22%, and S3 Partners says most of the ASTS position is a real directional bet.
BlackSky (BKSY) is also 22%. Sidus Space (SIDU) and Intuitive Machines (LUNR) are both 21%.
Then look at what July did to them. Intuitive Machines and Redwire (RDW) both fell 40%, Sidus dropped 46%, and Momentus (MNTS) lost 53%.
So you have got a group that just got destroyed, with a pile of shorts sitting in it, walking into the biggest share unlock in market history.
BRC Group (RILY) was this exact setup. Heavily shorted, catalyst hit, and it ran 1,131% in two days with me on camera.
Here’s where it gets special for you… from August 10 through 14, I’m opening my trading room to you free.
Nine to four, every day, the week right after all of this hits.
I have run these open houses before. Here’s what came out of them.
RILY ran 1,131% in two days. CAVA did 72% in eight minutes. VRT gained 124% in a day, SMMT did 106% in a day, and SPY put up 100% in half an hour.
This past June, in one regular week, I took 19 trades and 16 of them won, with the best one at 325% in a day.
One session I closed B. Riley three separate times, for 154%, then 114%, then 67%.
My last two open houses went 20 for 24 and 25 for 27.
But the numbers I like better are the ones from the chat.
EricGlad wrote in with 1,385% on Riley and called it the best trade of his life.
Kirk Rydberg sold his last piece for 1,467% and JoeS closed a call for 2,600%.
Gater113 got 1,425%, and a guy called Grumpy Grandpa took 1,180% out of the same name.
Hawkman put it best. He said it was his first three option trades ever, and he was up on all three.
None of those people paid a dollar to be in the room.
Not every trade works, and I’ll take losses live in front of you along with everything else. That’s the actual value of watching somebody trade instead of just reading about it.
What I can tell you is this is the most volatility I expect to see land in a single week all year, in a group that’s already washed out and waiting for a reason to move.
I haven’t opened these doors in a year and a half. No credit card, no paywall, nothing to buy.
Just show up.
