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Two AI executives talked over the weekend and the semis opened in the red.
Nvidia (NVDA) was down 2% premarket, Broadcom (AVGO) down 4%, and AMD (AMD), Intel (INTC), and Marvell (MRVL) down 5%, 6% and 7%.
Nate’s buying it.
That’s one of three things the team is watching this week, and all of them land in front of the Fed meeting on Wednesday afternoon.
Here we go:
What happened is that Anthropic’s chief executive called for slowing down development on the most capable AI models, and OpenAI’s Sam Altman said an IPO this year would be ill-advised.
Nate’s going the other way on it. He wants the biggest semi of them all, and he likes the daily chart right here.
The idea is picking it up somewhere around $208 to $212 on this dip, then running it into new all-time highs above $236 over the next couple of months.
Worth knowing what you’re buying into. Nothing about earnings or demand changed this morning. What changed was a safety argument between two AI labs, and whether that argument translates into anything real is the entire trade.
Bryan’s been tracking this one for about a month and he’s back on it again.
Grand Theft Auto V came out 13 years ago and became the biggest video game in history. The follow-up is expected in November, and all of the development costs have already been accounted for.
Which means the release should be close to pure profit on the way in.
Some are predicting it doubles Take-Two’s (TTWO) earnings. Bryan’s looking at calls on it.
And speaking of Bryan, he’s doing something Wednesday that nobody who knows him would have predicted.
Karim’s watching money move into defensive names ahead of the midterms, with pharmaceuticals at the top of his list.
Big cash flow producers hold up when everything else is getting repriced, and pharma and telecom have been about the only groups doing that lately.
One caveat he added, and it matters. Post-election is a different conversation entirely, because a lot of these same sectors come under pressure once the votes are counted. This is a pre-election read with a shelf life on it.
Everything above feeds into the Fed, with the market pricing in an 88% chance of a quarter-point hike.
If they hike, it’s priced and the market should shrug at it. If they hold, a lot of people are going to be repositioning in the same afternoon.
Either way, Thursday and Friday are where the volatility sits this week, because Friday is triple witching and a large amount of open interest comes off the board.
