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A Note from Stephen Prior, Publisher: I don’t normally hand my publisher’s note over to someone else’s byline. Today’s the exception.
Alexander Green has spent decades at The Oxford Club doing the unglamorous work most of Wall Street skips: reading trademark filings, FCC dockets, and supply agreements before the exciting headline ever shows up.
It’s how he caught the suppliers behind the original iPhone years before anyone else noticed them, and it’s what he’s doing right now with Elon Musk’s businesses.
He thinks he’s found the next Skyworks Solutions, hiding in plain sight in a $3 stock. I’ll let him make the case himself.
On January 9, 2007, Steve Jobs walked onto a stage in San Francisco and held up a slab of glass and aluminum. You know what happened next. Apple went on to become the most valuable company in the history of commerce.
Yet here is the part almost nobody thinks about…
If your goal on that January morning was to make the most money possible from the iPhone, buying Apple was not your best move.
Apple was already a $70 billion company that day. It had a hit music player and a profitable computer line. Analysts had covered the stock exhaustively for two decades.
Since every serious investor on Wall Street had an opinion about Apple, the information was mostly priced in.
But the same cannot be said for the companies that supplied the key components inside the phone.
Skyworks Solutions made the radio chips that let the device connect to a network. Cirrus Logic made the audio chips. Broadcom’s silicon went into essentially every unit.
None of these were household names at the time. Yet over the years following the iPhone launch, they generated returns that dwarfed even Apple’s meteoric rise.
Skyworks ran from $8 a share to over $110 – a 1,200% gain. Cirrus Logic is up over 2,000% since 2008. And Broadcom, whose technology went into every iPhone, is up over 16,000% since its 2009 IPO.
The math makes sense.
It’s much easier for a $700 million company to deliver a 10x return than it is for a giant company worth $1 trillion or more.
So when a genuinely enormous product cycle begins, the company at the center of it may capture the revenue, but the small companies feeding it can deliver outsized returns.
The hard part is identifying the suppliers before a big product is announced. After that, the repricing can happen within days.
Luckily there’s a way to track down these companies in advance.
Public companies are legally required to disclose material contracts.
Supply agreements get filed. Order sizes get announced. Trademarks get registered with the USPTO months or years before anyone uses them commercially. Spectrum licenses transfer through public regulatory dockets.
None of this is secret. You just have to do a bit of digging, which is exactly what I’ve been doing around Elon Musk’s businesses.
Consider what he’s been doing over the past 18 months…
SpaceX paid roughly $19.6 billion to acquire spectrum licenses from EchoStar – the airwaves themselves, bought outright. In February, it absorbed xAI. In June, it went public in the largest IPO ever recorded, valuing the company around $2 trillion. It has filed with the FCC for permission to launch an enormous constellation of orbital AI satellites.
And it registered a trademark for “Starlink Mobile.”
Then, on June 29, Musk said that the phones capable of using Starlink Mobile “will probably start shipping in around two years.” He also noted that today’s chipsets need hardware modifications to work with it.
Days later, The Wall Street Journal reported that SpaceX had shown investors a prototype of a handheld AI device, one that’s slimmer than an iPhone. Musk called that report “utterly false.”
He may deny it, but after connecting the dots, I’m convinced that SpaceX is working on a mobile device, which I’ve been calling the “xPhone.”
I also identified a company that I think will be pivotal to the device’s launch. It’s a tiny $3 stock almost nobody is watching.
Once an announcement is made, Wall Street will rush in. And the biggest gains vanish.
Good investing,
Alex